Case example A: Simple Exploration Valuation

• Concept 2 has highest expected value and largest upside
• Concept 1 and Consept 2 similar risk for negative NPV (~40%)
• Expected value of project is 72 MUSD (model 4)
• Most likely outcome is 2 MUSD (model 4)

Case example B: Ranking of prospects, drilling candidates


Case example C - Area planning and Concept Selection

Challenges to optimise area plan:
• Tie-in or stand alone
• Appraisal wells?
• Drill prospects?
• Develop oil rim?
• Decide export route – Pipeline capacity


• One existing platform
• Exploration well, discovered gas with a thin oil column (>10 m)
• Enough gas for development, but uncertain for oil development
• Total of three discoveries and 3 prospects in the area

 Some of the Uncertainties

Structuring the Problem